Aussie Dude
New Member
- Joined
- 03/10/2016
- Messages
- 72
After 80 plus rumor bosses and I got no tomes. Bloody unlucky! Done em'all and got jack crack . What a rip and and a gip
VDX_360":kknmji6w said:Nope, cause the unfairness (for a lack of a better word) is well understood. As stated on an initial post on the subject, "So if 100 players were trying to get an item with a 1% drop rate, one very lucky player gets the item on his or her first try, and 13 players will be still trying 200 attempts later. Huge difference in effort, sizable crowd."
https://www.exiledkingdoms.com/forum/vi ... p+binomial
Note: Item drops in the game aren't true binomials because of the max total drop items aspect of the loot table.
hueydvr38":3lad0y08 said:VDX_360":3lad0y08 said:Nope, cause the unfairness (for a lack of a better word) is well understood. As stated on an initial post on the subject, "So if 100 players were trying to get an item with a 1% drop rate, one very lucky player gets the item on his or her first try, and 13 players will be still trying 200 attempts later. Huge difference in effort, sizable crowd."
https://www.exiledkingdoms.com/forum/vi ... p+binomial
Note: Item drops in the game aren't true binomials because of the max total drop items aspect of the loot table.
VDX, correct me if I'm wrong but there is a flaw in this mathematical approach. This method would be based on 100 players competing for the same drop versus every player's individual chance at success. A 1% drop rate simply means each player has a 1 in 100 chance of getting the rare drop according to standard deviation. It doesn't mean one person would be lucky enough to get it in the first try compared to other players since each player is trying for their own drop, not everyone trying for the same drop (like in a lottery).
The referenced quote, and the referenced link, regards the expected distribution of a loot drop based on a simple binomial approach. It's a loose example to demonstrate the large difference in effort needed by players (in short, the rarer the drop, the greater the gap among between "lucky" players getting the item quickly and those slugging way years later). And yes, from a stats point of view, a first time success is considered expected when the inverse of the population of first attempts is equal to the chance of success (e.g. 100 people trying a 1% success). "Expected" in statistics is based on pure equation (Trials x chance etc) so it's not a mandate by any means.hueydvr38":3dvxiemj said:VDX, correct me if I'm wrong but there is a flaw in this mathematical approach....