Tolassian tomes

Aussie Dude

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After 80 plus rumor bosses and I got no tomes. Bloody unlucky! Done em'all and got jack crack . What a rip and and a gip
 

VDX_360

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At a mere 80 rumor bosses, I would be surprised if you got a single Tolassian Tome. First, not all rumor bosses drop the Tome, second the drop rate for the Rumor Bosses that do drop it is about 1%, and third, a loot drop only rolls for the Tome if --and only if-- the max drop items for that boss wasn't reached by the time the drop table got down to the Tome. So, think of odds closer to 1 in a 1,000 or higher. It really is an item that a select few might get but is far too rare to try to farm with any real success.

Each Rumor Boss has a loot table with a chance of success for each item. Each Rumor Boss has an max number of total items it will drop. The loot generator starts on the top of the list and moves down the list until the number of successful drops equals the max total drop number. The Tome is on the bottom of that list, meaning the vast majority of times, the loot generator exists the loot table before even rolling for the Tome.
 

VDX_360

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Nope, cause the unfairness (for a lack of a better word) is well understood. As stated on an initial post on the subject, "So if 100 players were trying to get an item with a 1% drop rate, one very lucky player gets the item on his or her first try, and 13 players will be still trying 200 attempts later. Huge difference in effort, sizable crowd."

https://www.exiledkingdoms.com/forum/vi ... p+binomial

Note: Item drops in the game aren't true binomials because of the max total drop items aspect of the loot table.
 

JarrenDrahn

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Given I spent 3 years on a maths degree, I'm well aware of the statistics. It was a poor attempt at a joke (although also true).
 

hueydvr38

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VDX_360":kknmji6w said:
Nope, cause the unfairness (for a lack of a better word) is well understood. As stated on an initial post on the subject, "So if 100 players were trying to get an item with a 1% drop rate, one very lucky player gets the item on his or her first try, and 13 players will be still trying 200 attempts later. Huge difference in effort, sizable crowd."

https://www.exiledkingdoms.com/forum/vi ... p+binomial


Note: Item drops in the game aren't true binomials because of the max total drop items aspect of the loot table.

VDX, correct me if I'm wrong but there is a flaw in this mathematical approach. This method would be based on 100 players competing for the same drop versus every player's individual chance at success. A 1% drop rate simply means each player has a 1 in 100 chance of getting the rare drop according to standard deviation. It doesn't mean one person would be lucky enough to get it in the first try compared to other players since each player is trying for their own drop, not everyone trying for the same drop (like in a lottery).
 

Sounkeng

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hueydvr38":3lad0y08 said:
VDX_360":3lad0y08 said:
Nope, cause the unfairness (for a lack of a better word) is well understood. As stated on an initial post on the subject, "So if 100 players were trying to get an item with a 1% drop rate, one very lucky player gets the item on his or her first try, and 13 players will be still trying 200 attempts later. Huge difference in effort, sizable crowd."

https://www.exiledkingdoms.com/forum/vi ... p+binomial


Note: Item drops in the game aren't true binomials because of the max total drop items aspect of the loot table.

VDX, correct me if I'm wrong but there is a flaw in this mathematical approach. This method would be based on 100 players competing for the same drop versus every player's individual chance at success. A 1% drop rate simply means each player has a 1 in 100 chance of getting the rare drop according to standard deviation. It doesn't mean one person would be lucky enough to get it in the first try compared to other players since each player is trying for their own drop, not everyone trying for the same drop (like in a lottery).


They aren't competing for the same drops, however the way I read the explanation it reminded me of the birthday paradox Probability doesn't say that an individual will get the drop but rather that there will be a random distribution resulting in a 1% drop rate. Therefore, with a sufficient sample size one player will get tolassian tombs with their first rumor bosses and another player may kill several hundred rumor bosses and never see one. But with the more players the greater chance that some random one of them will be particularly lucky.
 

VDX_360

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hueydvr38":3dvxiemj said:
VDX, correct me if I'm wrong but there is a flaw in this mathematical approach....
The referenced quote, and the referenced link, regards the expected distribution of a loot drop based on a simple binomial approach. It's a loose example to demonstrate the large difference in effort needed by players (in short, the rarer the drop, the greater the gap among between "lucky" players getting the item quickly and those slugging way years later). And yes, from a stats point of view, a first time success is considered expected when the inverse of the population of first attempts is equal to the chance of success (e.g. 100 people trying a 1% success). "Expected" in statistics is based on pure equation (Trials x chance etc) so it's not a mandate by any means.

In fact, one of the measurements used to determine the true randomness of a random number generator is how often the results deviate from the expected. Too much or too little suggests non-random force at play. An easy example of this concept is flipping a penny. While the expected result is 50-50 heads and tails, one would not expect every other toss to alternate between heads and tails, which such a case indicates an alternating, not random outcome.

But I digress.... If you want to discuss the implications of nested binomials on the true attack/damage rate, we call start a new thread called "Way Too Much Thought" but for the purposes at hand, given a big enough population, sooner or later someone will get a Tolassian Tome on a first try. It's just the way randomness works.
 

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